Corn bearish, soybeans neutral

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest U.S. corn acres were estimated at a shocking 93.6 million acres, up from the average estimate at 90 million acres. Corn was down 5 cents before the report came out. Within minutes it was 12-14 cents lower. Soybean acres were estimated at 82.2 million acres, down slightly from the 83.06 million acres trade estimate. Wheat acres were pegged at 49.5 million acres, down from trade estimates by nearly two million acres.It is going to take some time to get your head around a corn acres number that was over 3.5 million acres above trade estimates. The number does show the U.S. farmer’s love affair for corn does continue.U.S. corn stocks were estimated at 7.808 billion bushels, a new record for the March time frame. That estimate was just 7 million bushels below trade estimates. Soybean stocks were estimated at 1.531 billion bushels, 30 million bushels below trade estimates. U.S. wheat stocks were estimated at 1.372 billion bushels, 16 million bushels above the average trade estimate.Today’s report day is often called the biggest USDA report day of the year. It has plenty to offer with many numbers to consider. First of all, it is not a normal supply and demand report. No production or ending stocks numbers will be published. Instead, it consists of acres estimates along with quarterly grain stocks. USDA will provide their acres estimate of corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, and other grains in the U.S. With corn, soybeans, and wheat, the primary crops grown in the U.S. those three as a total will be the most watched number today. Here are the final numbers for those crops in 2015: corn 88.0 million acres, soybeans 82.7 million acres, and 54.6 million acres for wheat. The total acres for those three last year were 225.3 million acres.One can expect today to bring some violent and volatile price swings in the grains. Here’s why. The funds often use algorithms to read the headlines. Those algorithms read the numbers in the headlines. The headlines come out rapid fire. On a Reuters news feed you could easily see 10-20 headlines come out in 30 seconds or less. Computers then place orders to buy or sell depending upon the headline. With today’s reports containing both acres and grain stocks, the numbers could easily be exact opposites for the same grain. Example, the corn acres could be bullish, but yet the corn stocks number could be bearish. Or soybean acres could be bearish with the stocks number bullish. That is why you can see big ranges for corn and soybeans within a short period of time. Potentially you could see a 20-cent range in soybeans or a 10-cent range in corn in 30 minutes or less following the noon release of the USDA reports.Average trade estimates for 2016 acres are corn, 89.97 million acres; soybeans 83.06 million acres, and wheat, 51.47 million acres. It is no surprise that wheat acres for 2016 will be reduced from 2015. Fewer and fewer producers are following a typical rotation of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Wheat is being eliminated as the years pass due to quality concerns and the big monetary unknown it poses.U.S. quarterly grain stocks will also be released today. USDA measures both on-farm and off-farms grain stocks as of March 1, 2016. Here are the trader estimates for US grains: Corn at 7.801 billion bushels; soybean stocks 1.561 billion bushels; wheat stocks 1.356 billion bushels. Last year in March corn stocks of 7.75 billion bushels was a record.If corn or soybean stocks are sharply higher or lower than trader estimates, then you can begin to postulate that the yield estimates are off or demand projections of grain used are not correct. Soybean demand is pretty easy to figure. Soybeans are either exported or crushed. USDA provides weekly reports detailing soybeans exported. In addition a trade group that comprises 90% plus of U.S. crushing facilities provides a monthly crush report. Total corn is more difficult to determine with a large amount being used for livestock. Corn also has the weekly export report along with a weekly EIA energy report that details the amount of ethanol produced in the U.S. each week. Using normal industry standards that convert a bushel of corn into gallons of ethanol can provide a pretty accurate report of the number of bushels of corn used each week in the production of ethanol.Weather is already starting to again become a dominant feature in the grain markets. After all, it is spring. Spring is for planting. The current El Nino has long been known as the strongest of any in the past twenty years. However, it is quickly coming to an end, ending quicker than had been earlier projected. The next few months we will enter a neutral phase with La Nina coming into play later in the year. This neutral phase is already giving us dry weather concerns in the western and northern parts of the Midwest. Those dry weather concerns have played a role in the grain rally seen the past few weeks.Recent rains in the U.S. Delta have been slowing the typical corn planting pace. Already some have suggested we could see 1 to 1.5 million acres of corn in that area get switched to soybeans.What a big day down for corn so far at 12:45 pm. Soybeans have seen a huge range today of about 18 cents. You do have to think that corn is doing well not to be down even more that is as the 1 p.m. hour gets close and it is down 14-15 cents.Hang on, it is going to be another volatile year.last_img

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